war games

Prediction one

In 2023, America was having an identity crisis. In 2024, this crisis will be shaped by mounting geopolitical strife as the United States continues to clout-chase global dominance. Some Global South countries will continue to reject American colonialism and imperialism, while in the West a growing number of elected leaders will double down on fascist, ethnonationalist and anti-communist rhetoric. Elected officials across the political spectrum in the U.S. and abroad will aim to position their governing agenda as the safest path to security by exploiting internal and external conflicts. We will watch elected officials leverage the country’s identity as a monied war machine to enforce Western supremacy and law and order narratives. These officials will also reinforce policing and punishment as a primary role of government at home and abroad under the guise of maintaining homeland security and allied relationships. In sum, conversations will be reckoning with America’s global identity as the Biden administration continues to sign blank checks and co-sign unspeakable crimes against humanity in Pakistan, Sudan, Haiti and Palestine.

THE PLANET KEEPS THE SCORE

Prediction two

2024 will usher narratives about green capitalism into a climate conversation that, for 30 years, has been dominated and defined by a bad faith narrative battle about whether or not climate change is real. Extreme weather events — tornadoes in Australia, record-breaking heat across India, wildfire smoke from Canada to the U.S. South — have shifted our collective reality and the stories and narratives traversing the ecosystem. Climate conversations are stark. Some argue that we are facing the ramifications of decades of ignored warnings. Others take it upon themselves to adopt individualized climate solutions, leaning into consumerism and the endless pursuit of the latest “green” technology. Extreme weather will continue to affect poor, houseless and other marginalized communities. These impacts will paint a bleak unbalanced picture when compared to those with access to wealth, resources, security and power.

If you thought mis-and disinformation about climate change might decrease, think again. Expect a healthy dose of disinfo in consumer conversations that spill over into the culture wars (remember the gas stove, people?) and wherever climate conversations intersect with U.S. elections, migration and the cost of living. The cocktail of disinformation, fear of the future and ongoing inequality will increase scarcity narratives deeply embedded across society. But it’s not all doom and gloom. Chatter about climate solutions, often experimental and innovative, is louder than in the past as the stark reality of climate change and its material impacts become clearer across the globe.

work
is a four letter word

Prediction three

Conversations about jobs and the economy in 2024 will be shaped by a surge in stories about worker power. We’ll also see stories about work-life balance and pandemic-inspired cultural shifts. Together, these stories will underscore the ways most people’s wages are losing the race against high living costs while corporate greed creates record-breaking profits for select elites. There will also be an increase in conversation about the impact of migrant workers on job competition and labor organizing. These will be the usual stories of skilled versus unskilled work and deserving versus undeserving people.

Organized labor and unions rose to become central characters in conversations around workers and the economy in 2022 and 2023. In 2024, they will likely remain central characters in a complex narrative landscape. There will be stories of major wins for workers, including large scale organizing and contract wins that improve conditions and hold bosses accountable. We can expect competing stories about self-styled “hustlers,” folks in the gig economy grind, and workers with multiple low-wage jobs who jeopardize their livelihoods by organizing for change. We will also see an increase in stories about the impacts of global economic precarity on workers of color who have always faced economic uncertainty and insecurity. These stories crack open narrative contests between worker solidarity, extractive capitalism and business-as-usual rugged individualism. Stories about the promise and dangers AI presents to work and workers will continue to increase in volume. As implied in the SAG-AFTRA strike, AI stories will be driven by both fear of job loss and class solidarity as well as the hope that technology will somehow bring us more ease and leisure.

TOTAL MENTIONS BY TOPIC IN CONVERSATIONS ABOUT LABOR AND UNIONS

Volume Comparison of #UnionsForAll and #JoinAUnion (99.7k), #Fightfor15 and #RaisetheWage (29k), #WorkLifeBalance (752.4k) | August 1 - December 15, 2023
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NARRATIVES AT PLAY

Category is....Bawdy!

Prediction four

Some people say the body is a wonderland, but in 2024, the body will be a battleground. Conversations about the body have been in the mix for a while now, and this year, we predict they’ll be taking center stage in a new way. Efforts to ban the right to abortion will escalate as will referendums aimed at enshrining that right. Increasing violence against queer and trans people and a growing threat to broader gay rights are also operating in the ecosystem of body narratives. These conversations are getting louder as we inch into election season. We’ll also see an increase in and overlap with conversations the role gender and sexuality play in defining how people are able to move through the world.

Conversations about “the self” will traverse the often (but not always!) opposing camps of community care versus self-care and abundance versus scarcity. Race, class, gender and geographical differences will all shape how stories of the self are told, heard and used. Stories will intersect with ongoing fights for reproductive justice, LGBTQIA+ rights and battles over how to define masculinity and femininity, shaped by the specter of Andrew Tate and his manosphere minions. We’ll also see new permutations of wellness trends influence leisure and travel. Parents will be main characters in conversations about drug use, recreational or otherwise. Different creators and audiences across the expanding ocean of platforms will all bring their own flavor of this conversation to the table. As always, online discourse by and for Black folks will dominate and shape conversations about gender and the body across social media, particularly about relationships, self-image and defining pop culture moments.

I Got 99 Bitcoins,
but a Dollar Ain’t One

Prediction five

Depending on where you’re sitting when you check your bank account or pay your bills, you’re either feeling pretty lucky you can make ends meet or telling yourself “this is fine” as you try to stretch a dollar in six different directions. Either way, you’re acutely aware that people are struggling to meet their needs. Stories about the economy have shifted in the past 18 months from panic over inflation and the supply chain crisis to economic stability. In 2024, conversations about the economy will take us on a roller coaster ride rife with conflicting and contradictory stories. The federal government, political centrists and economists will talk of a general post-pandemic stabilization while celebrating job growth, inflation reduction and decreased fuel costs. Contrast that with stories about working class families struggling with the actual cost of things.

Major story trends will focus on how the high cost of essentials like housing, baby formula and childcare are squeezing folks at every income level – unless you’re in the 1%. The right wing narrative ecosystem (media, influencers and politicians alike) will jump on this trend to recycle their stories about gas prices and milk, deploying targeted messaging that aligns them with the working class. Meanwhile, corporations are flexing their narrative muscle. Expect them to amplify stories about revenue loss fueled by union organizing and regulation, while arguing for monopolies on the grounds of efficiency and care for the consumer. This strategy will support big plays to consolidate corporate power across sectors like energy, media and tech.

The cacophony of stories about the economy gestures toward the extreme inequality of our modern Gilded Age without naming it directly. If history and our research tell us anything, brace yourself for more conversations about the perils of late-stage capitalism. These conversations will be full of valid critiques of the status quo and show the distance between out-of-touch economic elites and regular people. While more and more people in the dominant conversation about the economy are affirming that capitalism is harmful, it’s rare to see the critique paired with ideas about what a different kind of economy could look like, much less tangible alternatives. This noisy conversation provides fertile ground to redefine what American economic prosperity is, and who it is for in 2024 and beyond.

TOTAL MENTIONS BY TOPIC IN CONVERSATIONS ABOUT THE US ECONOMY

This chart compares jobs, inflation, housing, retirement, the cost of living crisis, the Inflation Reduction Act and student loans in broader conversations about the economy. Conversations about jobs and inflation are the loudest, spiking around federal policy and mentions of the President. Topic volumes vary, but the trend lines show that they all follow a similar trajectory, suggesting that stories about one topic trigger stories about other topics.

Volume Comparison in Conversations about the U.S. Economy | Jobs, Inflation, Housing, Retirement, Cost of Living Crisis, Inflation Reduction Act, Student Loans August 1 - December 15, 2023 | Powered by Zignal Labs

Fast Times
at the Ballot Box

Prediction six

Like it or not, the 2024 presidential elections will take up most of the oxygen in the room and influence almost every conversation. The media will bring a Hunger Games energy to its misguided “horse race instead of the stakes” election coverage. Expect more stories about an aging political leadership (the gerontocracy!) coupled with voter disillusion and fatigue. We’ll see more stories walk a tightrope held taut by polarization: school choice versus the need to fund public institutions, retractive versus expansive democracy in the U.S. (democracy for me, not for thee), and American decline versus prosperity. 

The 2024 elections may hold other stories: a referendum against the Biden administration, a portrayal of the two-party system as two sides of the same unhelpful coin, a rise of third-party candidates or a landslide victory for the GOP. AI-generated mis-and disinformation, along with existing conspiracy theories, will move faster than we can track and inoculate. We can’t predict winners or losers, but we can tell you it will be a rough ride to Election Day. The question is: will people get desensitized and further disillusioned by the spectacle or stay engaged and fight for democracy?